Sunday, December 24, 2006

India warning on globalisation

There has been speculation if an economic meltdown is in the offing in India ... here's my 2 cents worth :

All this speculation of "meltdown" is hogwash ... India's libralization has been more organic and controlled than most other economies. I really dont think there is any risk of repeat of a South Asian crisis OR Latin American volatility out here ...

Early growth did come due to internal ( to India ) restructuring eg. the dismantling of the licence raj, increasing the sectors where private businesses could participate etc ... this was true more in the 90s ... not anymore.

True, the growth here has not been broadbased ... but really it cant be expected in a country of our size in such a short time ... even in China there is a clear divide one u move out of Beijing/ Shanghai / Guangxhao which are their economic showcases ... only we dont get to see / hear too much about it.

Till date liberalization has impacted the service / mfg sectors and urban india, say 200 mill of our 1bill + population ... gradually the govt is focusing on agriculture / rural india ...
In fact this "phased" nature of liberalization to my mind is the best safety valve against a potential meltdown.

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